19th SSF Security Talk  | Geopolitical Tensions in the Arctic: The Battle for Resources, Trade Routes and Great Power Claims, 23rd October 2024

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At the 19th SSF Security Talk, three experts discussed the geopolitical significance of the Arctic. Depending on your point of view, the Arctic is either on the brink of disaster, a rich store of natural resources or a geopolitical hotspot with potential for escalation. The perspectives are diverse. These in turn depend on the respective view on the Arctic in terms of geopolitics, energy and environmental policy, global economy and military security. However, the different perspectives and their scenarios have a common basis, namely climate change and its massive consequences for the Arctic.

 

With the drastic thawing of the polar ice, the Arctic has become increasingly relevant for Russia and China, but also for the USA in terms of security policy, with great potential for conflict. A return to peaceful cooperation with Russia is not realistic at present, apart from the existing contractual agreements.

 

 However, this potential for conflict has to be looked at closely: For the foreseeable future, the Arctic sea routes offer a clear shortcut compared to southern routes, but not a long-term alternative. The melting ice makes shipping in the Arctic possible in the summer months, but not better or even easier. This is because the weather conditions, enormous distances, orientation and navigation remain very difficult and the costs are too high to compete with the Suez and Panama Canals.

 

​The experts at the 19th FSS Security Talk agreed that climate change poses major challenges for the entire Arctic region. In addition, there is still a great deal to be explored. Only 8% of the Arctic has been mapped so far. The fact that the Arctic consists mainly of ice and water, combined with its enormous size and small population, makes precise orientation and observation difficult.

 

A peaceful and stable Arctic is increasingly becoming a distant prospect. This is because the economic and military interests of the major powers and the littoral states will determine the agenda in the future. Accelerated climate change in the Arctic is having a massive impact on the civil and military use of the Arctic. In order to defuse the potential for conflict in the region at an early stage before it escalates, members of the Arctic Council - including Switzerland - are focusing on negotiated solutions and talks on all levels of government and “quiet” diplomacy.

 

 In the presence of over 70 interested participants, renowned experts such as Dr. Michael Paul (Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs), Major General Claude Meier (Former General Staff Officer at the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP)) and Bruno Ehrler (Director C5I Space at RUAG) spoke and engaged in discussion.

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The Swiss Security Forum (SSF) can look back on a successful event and would like to thank all those who attended for their participation.

 

​The detailed summary report with the exciting findings from the input presentations and the panel discussion can be found here.

 

The program for the talk and the panelists can be found here.

 

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